Julian Alden

Bessent Is Asking Europe for Diesel Reserves — While Washington Studies a Ban That Would Cut Europe's Supply by 10%.

Energy Policy Audit Brent Below $100, Bessent Pressures Europe on Diesel Reserves — and the Administration Is Split on Whether to Ban U.S. Diesel Exports Brent jumped 4.6% to $102.55 Thursday on carrier news before retreating to $99–100 Friday morning. WTI is near $92. Treasury Secretary Bessent

PCE Dropped to 3.0% Core — Below Every Estimate — and the Problem Is That Number Covers August Not September.

Inflation Audit PCE Came In at 3.4% — Below Every Estimate. Core at 3.0% Against a 3.3% Forecast. The Number Warsh Said Wasn't Improving Just Improved. August PCE inflation printed at 3.4% year-over-year — below the 3.7% forecast and below July's

Eight of the Most Powerful Men in AI Signed a 300-Word "Morally Binding" Document at the White House

Regulatory Theater Audit Musk, Zuckerberg, Bezos, and Huang Signed a 300-Word "Morally Binding" AI Document at the White House — Speaker Johnson Confirmed It Has No Legal Force Eight of the most powerful technology executives in the world gathered at the White House to sign the "White

President Said He Offered Iran "NOTHING" — Then Confirmed Talks Resume This Week and Araghchi Is Waiting for a U.S. Answer by Tuesday.

War Diplomacy Audit Trump Said "I Offered Them NOTHING" — Then Confirmed Talks Are Ongoing, Intermediaries Met Monday, and Negotiations Resume This Week Axios, citing U.S. officials, reported Sunday that Trump is prepared to offer Iran sanctions relief and unfreezing of Iranian assets in exchange for concrete steps

Nvidia Just Announced the Largest Share Buyback in Corporate History — $235 Billion Total on a $5.42 Trillion Company.

Capital Allocation Audit Nvidia Just Announced the Largest Share Buyback in Corporate History — $150 Billion More, $235 Billion Total, on a $5.42 Trillion Company That Has Run Out of Better Ideas for Its Cash Nvidia announced today a $150 billion addition to its share repurchase authorization — the largest single

The 10-Year Hit 5.17% This Morning — and the Fed Can't Fix Any of the Three Things Driving It.

Fixed Income Audit The 10-Year at 5.17%: Six Weeks of Rising Yields, a 30-Year Mortgage Above 7%, and the Three Drivers the Fed Cannot Solve With Interest Rates The 10-year Treasury yield has risen more than 20 basis points in two days and is climbing for

China Just Blinked — and Two Months Instead of Six Is the Most Honest Answer Xi Brought to Washington.

Geopolitical Capital Audit — Day Two The Summit That Delivered Two Months Instead of Six — and What Bessent's "More Deliverables" Language Actually Means for the Trade and Iran Tracks Xi landed at Andrews Wednesday evening. Trump and Melania met him on the tarmac — the first time an

Trump Said "We Don't Need China's Help on Iran" Yesterday — Then Drove to the Airport to Meet Xi on the Tarmac.

Geopolitical Capital Audit Xi Lands at Andrews Today. Trump Meets Him on the Tarmac. The Summit That Has to Answer the Satellite Imagery Report — and Three Other Questions That Actually Move Markets Xi Jinping arrives at Joint Base Andrews this afternoon for his first U.S. state visit in 11

Iran Said It Would Open Hormuz in Seven Days — Brent Dropped $2.75 Before Anyone Verified It and the Archive Has Seen This Move Four Times Before.

Energy Diplomacy Audit One Anonymous Source Said Iran Would Open Hormuz in Seven Days — and Brent Dropped $2.75 Before Anyone Verified It Reuters and Kyodo reported Monday that a senior unnamed Iranian official said Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if the U.S. eases

The Poll Says 5-Point Democrat Lead but Independents Are Breaking 5-to-1 Against the President

Electoral Capital Audit 41% and Falling: What the NBC Poll Actually Tells You About the November Map — and Why the 5-Point Democrat Lead Is the Most Misleading Number in It NBC News released its first post-hike, post-Aramco poll Sunday. Trump's approval stands at 41% — a

Markets Bounced Back Thursday — and Woke Up This Morning to the Most Mechanically Volatile Day of the Quarter.

Market Mechanics Audit Triple Witching Friday: Markets Bounced Hard on Thursday — Then Woke Up to the Most Mechanically Volatile Day of the Quarter Thursday's S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posted their best single-day gains since early August as oil pulled back and Treasury yields retreated

The Fed Hiked to 4%, Diesel Hit $6.31 All-Time Record, and Trump Called the Board "Hostile" — All on the Same Day.

September 16 Audit 12–0 Hike, Diesel at $6.31, Dow Down 631 — and Trump Called the Fed Board "Hostile" Before the Day Was Over Wednesday produced three simultaneous events that share one underlying driver: the Iran war's energy premium. The FOMC voted 12–0 to